August 2013 Tracking Poll Memo

TO: Interested Parties
FR: Michael Ramlet and Kyle Dropp
DT: September 4, 2013
RE: Obamacare Approval Ratings by Party, Age, Gender, Race, Region and More

The Affordable Care Act, a pivotal issue for the 2014 Midterm Elections, elicits dramatic differences in approval ratings among key targeted voting demographics, according to new results from The Morning Consult National Healthcare Tracking Poll for August 2013. Today, we analyze the healthcare law’s approval ratings among 125 over voter subgroups.

This Morning Consult National Healthcare Tracking Poll was conducted from August 29-31, 2013, among a national sample of 1,979 registered voters. Results from the full sample have a margin of error of +/- 2 percent. The interviews were conducted online by Survey Sampling International, Inc. and the data were weighted to match a target sample of registered voters based on age, race, gender, education and region.

Overall: Registered Voters Disapprove of Health Overhaul by a 5 Point Margin

Forty-nine percent disapprove of the healthcare law, 44 percent approve, and six percent hold no opinion. Views on the subject are polarized –nearly twice as many strongly disapprove (33 percent) as strongly approve (19 percent). Overall, 19 percent strongly approve, 26 percent somewhat approve, 16 percent somewhat disapprove and 33 percent strongly disapprove.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic1

By Party:  Ideology Drives Intensity of Obamacare Views Within Parties

Seventy-six percent of conservative Republicans strongly oppose the 2010 health care law, compared with 43 percent of liberal and moderate Republicans. Support spikes among liberal Democrats – 45 percent strongly approve of the health care overhaul, compared with 24 percent of moderate and conservative Democrats, 11 percent of liberal and moderate Republicans and only two percent of conservative Republicans.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic2

Ideology also drives support among political Independents. Sixty-five percent of conservative Independents disapprove of the 2010 health care overhaul, whereas six in 10 liberal Independents approve or strongly approve of the law. Moderate Independents break 36-53 against the Affordable Care Act.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic3

By Age: Older Voters Are More Opposed to Obamacare

Older voters, who are more likely to cast ballots in midterm elections, are less supportive of the healthcare overhaul. Fully 46 percent of seniors strongly disapprove of the healthcare overhaul, compared with 37 percent of adults 45-64, 29 percent of adults 30-44 and only 18 percent of adults under 30.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic4

 

LabelsStrongly

approve

Somewhat

approve

Somewhat

disapprove

Strongly

disapprove

DK /

No opinion

N
18-29

20

36

20

18

7

360

30-44

18

26

20

29

7

513

45-64

20

23

14

37

7

726

65+

16

21

12

46

5

390

 

By Gender: Younger Adults are More Favorable, but Less Intense than Seniors

Forty-one percent of females seniors strongly disapprove of the law, compared with 19 percent of females 18-29 years old. Overall approval for the law trends slightly higher among females.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic5

51 percent of male seniors strongly disapprove of the law, compared with only 14 percent of males 18-29 years of age.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic6

More than four in 10 married males, and approximately four in 10 married females, strongly disapprove of the 2010 health care overhaul, compared with 22 percent of single males and 17 percent of single females.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic7

 

LabelsStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveDK / No opinionN
Married Males

18

21

14

42

4

504

Married Females

13

27

17

37

7

520

Single Males

23

34

16

22

5

316

Single Females

27

29

17

17

10

258

 

By Race: Dramatic Divide in Approval Ratings Among Whites and Minorities

Fewer than four in 10 white registered voters approve the health care law. On the other hand, 57 percent of Hispanics and 76 percent of African Americans approve the legislation. Strong approval among African Americans reaches 43 percent.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic8

 

LabelsStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveDK / No opinionN
Black

43

32

12

4

9

243

Non-Hispanic White

14

22

17

41

6

1393

Hispanic

20

37

14

22

8

226

 

By Region: Midwest and South versus Northeast and West on Approval Ratings

Voters from South and Midwest exhibit lower levels of support for the 2010 health care law than registered voters from the West and Northeast. Fifty-three percent of voters from the South disapprove of the law, compared with 52 percent from the Midwest, 44 percent from the Northeast and 44 percent from the West.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic9

 

LabelsStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveDK / No opinionN
Northeast

20

29

18

26

6

354

Midwest

17

25

15

36

6

435

South

18

22

15

38

7

741

West

21

28

16

28

6

459

 

By Education: Levels of Education Attainment Show Break in Approval Ratings

Registered Voters with less formal education are less supportive of the 2010 health care law. Americans with a high school degree or less formal education lean against the law by a 38-55 margin, Americans with Some College or a 4-year degree are evenly split, 46-48, and Americans with graduate degrees support the law by a 55-41 margin. More broadly, 50 percent of college grads support the overhaul, compared with 42 percent of non-college graduates.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic10  

LabelsStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveDK / No opinionN
HS or less

15

22

17

38

8

623

Some College

20

26

17

31

7

778

College Grad

19

27

15

33

5

365

Postgraduate

24

31

14

27

3

223

 

By Income: Levels of Household Income Unrelated to Support

Forty-three percent of registered voters earning under $46,000 annually approve of the 2010 health care law, compared to 47 percent of voters earning between $46,000 and $92,000 and 42 percent of voters in households that earn $92,000 or more each year.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic11

 

LabelsStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveDK / No opinionN
Income $46K or less

18

25

16

33

8

1043

Income $46K to $92K

20

27

16

32

5

661

Income $92K or more

18

24

16

36

6

278

 

By Insurance Status: Existing Coverage is Not a Predictor of Approval Ratings 

An individual’s current insurance status is not a clear predictor of support for the 2010 health care law. Half of voter who purchase insurance on their own approve the law, compared with about four in 10 Americans who receive their care through their employers, receive their coverage through the government or who are uninsured.

The Morning Consult August Tracking Poll Pic12

LabelsStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveDK / No opinionN
Uninsured

20

23

18

33

7

389

Purchase on Own

21

28

18

29

5

141

Employer-based

18

27

17

33

6

758

Government Plan

19

23

13

37

8

613


 

 

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    Oct 09, 2014 - 04:14 AM

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